Justice sector projections

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We produce the Justice Sector Projections on behalf of the justice sector. The projections are important for strategic planning within the sector. They include:

  • Prison projections, covering the sentenced and remand prison populations. This looks 10 years ahead to give a long-term view of trends in the prison population.
  • Non-custodial sentences projections covering offenders serving community sentences, and those on post-sentence orders.
  • Crown Law projections, covering the numbers of Crown prosecutions and appeals undertaken by Crown solicitors (under the oversight of the Solicitor-General) or lawyers from Crown Law.
  • Fines and remittals projections, covering the numbers of impositions, receipts and remittals of monetary penalties to Community Work sentences.
  • Legal aid projections, covering the numbers of grants, average costs, expenditure, and debt recovery for legal aid.

Projection reports

Projection reports provide details of new projections. Prior to 2017, these were referred to as forecast reports.

Justice Sector Prison Projection 2019 report [PDF, 461 KB]

Data for Justice Sector Prison Projection 2019 [XLSX, 166 KB]

Justice Sector Prison Projection 2018 report [PDF, 629 KB]

Data for Justice Sector Prison Projection 2018 [XLSX, 137 KB]

Justice Sector Prison Projection 2017 report [PDF, 445 KB]

Data for Justice Sector Prison Projection 2017 [XLSX, 120 KB]

Graphs for 2017-2021 Crown Law forecast report [XLSX, 85 KB]

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Previous forecast reports

Earlier reports (back to 2005) can be found using our find a publication tool.

Graphs for 2016-2026 prison forecast report [XLSX, 147 KB]

Graphs for 2016-2026 non-custodial sentence forecast report [XLSX, 616 KB]

Graphs for 2016-2021 legal aid forecast report [XLSX, 241 KB]

One year prison population forecast - September 2016 [PDF, 254 KB]

Data for September one year forecast [XLSX, 54 KB]

Legal Aid forecast 2015-2020 - October 2015 [PDF, 397 KB]

Data for Legal Aid forecast 2015-2020 [XLS, 493 KB]

Non-custodial sentences forecast 2015-2025 - December 2015 [PDF, 1.2 MB]

Data for non-custodial sentences forecast 2015-2025 [XLSX, 572 KB]

Prison forecast 2015-2025 - December 2015 [PDF, 346 KB]

Data for prison forecast 2015-2025 [XLSX, 129 KB]

Fines and Remittals forecast 2015-2020 - August 2015 [PDF, 477 KB]

Data for Fines and Remittals forecast 2015-2020 [XLSX, 158 KB]

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Comparison reports

These reports monitor the progress of the projections against the real-life behaviour of the system, and also look at how accurate the projection assumptions have been. From March 2016, these were called Justice Sector Outlook reports and included details of any projections refreshed during the most recent quarter.

Justice Sector Outlook December 2016 [PDF, 758 KB]

Data for Justice Sector Outlook December 2016 [XLSX, 856 KB]

Justice Sector Outlook June 2016 [PDF, 889 KB]

Data for Justice Sector Outlook June 2016 [XLSX, 1 MB]

Justice Sector Outlook March 2016 [PDF, 682 KB]

Data for Justice Sector Outlook March 2016 [XLSX, 967 KB]

Quarter ending December 2015 [PDF, 248 KB]

Data for quarterly update December 2015 [XLSX, 969 KB]

Earlier comparison reports (back to January 2009) can be found using our find a publication tool.

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More information

If you're interested in finding out more about the justice sector projections, you can email us.

Email: justiceinfo@justice.govt.nz.

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